RUSSIA-UKRAINE From the Field of Possibilities to the Wall of Realities

Unlikely defeat of Russia - Impossible victory of Ukraine

This essay is a condensed work of history, geography and prospective geopolitics.

Drawing on the history and geography of Ukraine, Russia, Europe and the Eurasian continent, the author's aim is to think about peace by proposing a new security system in Europe, from the Atlantic to the Urals. To ignore the causes and lament the consequences is the surest path to catastrophe. This is precisely what is happening to Europe: increased energy dependence on autocratic states and potentially conflict-prone regions, inflation, sluggish growth, rising debt — while Russia, the aggressor, is experiencing mechanical economic growth driven by its relative isolation, circumstantial alliances and its war economy.

A solution exists that disregards the right of peoples to self-determination, yet ultimately allows peoples to survive within a balance of power they do not control. Mindful of the balance of power that prevails in relations between states, and that war, without political perspective, produces nothing but more war, the author proposes a reasoned resolution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The author, Didier Jean, holds a DEA in geopolitics obtained in 1991 at the University of Paris VIII under the supervision of Professor Yves Lacoste. An adherent of Realpolitik, he practises here a mode of thinking that reflects what General de Gaulle and François Mitterrand felt: « There is no sound policy that does not take account of realities. »